In 2022, an avatar (Mark Zuckerberg’s) excitedly announced the metaverse, an immersive virtual reality, a new digital world that was going to change the way we relate to each other, innovate, work, play and even do business. Despite the great expectation and its very promising launch, the metaverse lost steam and its inclusion level was minimum, and it is still residual.
This technology’s lack of acceptance surprises nobody, given there was no solid, lasting virtual economy and the elevated price of the device and its accessories, the gadgets needed to access that world. It was also advanced by the team of Gartner consultants, who in their 2022 hype cycle, the tool that shows the maturity and adoption of technologies, indicated that there were at least 10 years left for this virtual world to be democratised.
Was Zuckerberg wrong? He was not, and this is confirmed by the value of Meta’s shares on the stock market. He just got ahead of things. The metaverse will flourish and explode showing all its potential. In fact, Statista foresees that the metaverse market will reach a market value of 74,400 million dollars in 2024 and is expected to reach a projected market volume of $507,8 billion in 2030.
As CEO of a company specialised in investment in scientific and technological Venture Capital, we know that emerging technologies are a complex investment asset that needs a lot of knowledge, a lot of experience and international partners that allow you to launch a product or service at a certain time, beyond fashions and trends. For example, what good is a fashion show in the metaverse if it does not translate into trousers sold by a brand?
These days virtual, augmented and mixed reality are back in the news with the launch of Apple’s Vision Pro glasses in the United States and its fight with Meta’s glasses, Quest. The latter are oriented towards Virtual Reality, while Apple’s are committed to reinforcing augmented reality.
Nevertheless, if we go back in time, we find another example of disruptive technology that did not quite prosper because it was launched ahead of its time: Google’s glasses. Consecrated as one of the best inventions of the year by Time magazine, they appeared in an episode of The Simpsons and were the main stars at the Fashion Week in New York. Despite the success and great welcome, the reality is that they had security flaws, the developers stopped programming applications, and they fell into oblivion. Further evidence that this market took its first steps years ago, with Apple’s commitment it begins its “adolescence”, and in a few years we will see how it reaches its full potential and maturity.
Beyond functionalities and the battle for sales, it is important to analyse the rise of this technology, its social impact and its ethical implications. Once again, technological development is going much faster than the democratisation of technology itself. Yes, we do need innovation and truly disruptive technologies, but speed without course, vision or mission does not have a humanist focus, which is basic for the development and use of technology.
The transforming power of private capital must always seek a greater purpose, betting on projects that go beyond the mere search for financial return. We must always have a deep ethical consideration that invites us to reflect on the impact of financial decisions on the most vulnerable and on future generations. Investment with human values is synonymous with responsibility towards other people.
On the other hand, let’s not forget that this technology also has its negative part, a less shiny side: it may cause, according to experts, loss of contact with reality and a greater addiction than the one caused by mobile phones or video games.
Therefore, we must bet on use cases that really have a positive impact on human beings, that allows them to have a better life in every aspect, but always with common sense and taking care of people. Whenever I talk about these things, I use social media as an example, since it has transformed our way of communicating and sharing information. But, besides creating addiction among young people (and among the not so young), it is worrying how easily misinformation and fake news spread. Social networks can contribute to political and social polarization and even influence elections, spread conspiracy theories and also incite violence.
Something similar happens with recommendation algorithms, which help customise the user experience by offering content that is tailored to individual interests, but at the same time create filter bubbles. When users only see content that reinforces their opinions, it encourages polarization and intolerance.
Going back to virtual, augmented and mixed reality, this technology will change our day-to-day and influence the lives of many, and this is the reason why we must analyse carefully its use cases and bet only on those who improve people’s lives.
This is the case of augmented reality in the medical sector, which for example allows the patient’s veins to be detected or, as in the Spencer Hospital in Iowa, which uses this technology for simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) of organs such as the heart. In this way, doctors direct their mobile phone towards a specific area of the patient and map it with their organs, veins or tumors. With this Augmented Reality application, it has been possible to increase the success rate of biopsies by 50% and the precision of aneurysm surgeries by 30%.
Another sector in which we will see a high level of adoption of this kind of technology will be the construction sector, allowing them to work with precision during the planning and construction of the project.
For example, for the complicated process of road design, Bentley has created a tool called ConceptStation, which solves the problems associated with creating a road over an extended area while ensuring that all curves remain within standards such as the rainwater flow, intersections in the design and overall driving capacity, which must be taken into account. The tool scans physical environments with a head-mounted HTC Vive. It is then moved to the digital world where it is assembled into an editable 3D mesh.
We will also see its application in risk prevention, since it will allow knowing the interior of the building before entering and will even allow security forces to be prepared and avoid dangerous situations.
Sustainability will be pushed forward, since this technology will allow us to save energy or simplify the choice of materials or techniques, which finishes to opt for or a certain type of lighting. Efficiency and optimization of the use of materials and labour, what more could you ask for?
Another area in which this technology will flourish will be in training. A PwC study compares virtual reality versus traditional or online teaching. The results are very positive and encouraging: students are trained four times faster. Impressive, right?
And, of course, al lot of these use cases prove that this will be a very profitable sector. The augmented reality market is expected to reach a market size by the end of this year of $105 billion and by 2029 it will reach $472 billion.
Now all that remains is to provide vision for a choice with values of the projects to implement with Augmented, Virtual and Mixed Reality. Technologies change, the principles when investing do not.
